Let’s Change Terminology: Forecast? Prediction?

Posted by Cello Admin on January 01, 2015  /   Posted in Newsletters

forecastrA potential new client recently asked me how often preapproval product forecasts hit the mark and match actual sales. The answer is, “rarely,” and that applies to the entire forecasting discipline in our industry. I shared with him a recent McKinsey study mentioned in our last e-newsletter. McKinsey studied forecasts among 260 drug launches from 2002 through 2011 and found that the forecaster usually got it wrong: more than 60% of the forecasts were over or under by more than 40% of actual peak revenues.1

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